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16 Sep 2022

AUD/USD breaks below 0.6700, hits the lowest level since June 2020 amid stronger USD

  • AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Friday and drops to over a two-year low.
  • Bets for aggressive Fed rate hike boost the USD and exerts downward pressure.
  • The risk-off impulse also benefits the buck and weighs on the risk-sensitive aussie.

The AUD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply following an early uptick to the 0.6725 region and turns lower for the second straight day on Friday. This also marks the third day of a negative move in the previous four and drags spot prices to the lowest level since June 2020, around the 0.6670 area during the first half of the European session.

As investors look past upbeat Chinese economic data released earlier this Friday, resurgent US dollar demand turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The greenback continues to draw support from expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace and the bets were reaffirmed by the stronger US CPI report.

In fact, the markets have been pricing in the possibility of a full 100 bps rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 20-21. Moreover, the US central bank is further expected to deliver another supersized 75 bps rate increase in November. This, along with the risk-off impulse, drives haven flows towards the buck and weighs on the risk-sensitive aussie.

The prospects for rapid interest rate hikes, along with economic headwinds stemming from COVID-19 lockdowns in China and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, have been fueling recession fears. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets, which is evident from a fresh leg down in the equity markets and tends to benefit the safe-haven greenback.

With the latest leg down, the AUD/USD pair confirms a fresh breakdown below the 0.6700 round figure. A  subsequent fall below the previous YTD low, around the 0.6680 region, might have already set the stage for further losses. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the 0.6645 intermediate support, en route to the 0.6700 mark, looks like a distinct possibility.

Technical levels to watch

 

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