WTI crude oil refreshes eight-year high near $90.00 on softer USD, geopolitical fears
- WTI edges higher around the levels last seen during October 2014.
- DXY refreshes 13-day low even as yields remain firmer, stock futures print gains.
- Russia blames NATO, West for escalating tensions, OPEC+ supply increase doubted.
- All eyes on US NFP, geopolitical headlines for fresh impulse.
WTI crude oil bulls achieved another landmark by fueling the commodity moves to the new multi-year high of $89.76, recently taking rounds to $89.60 during the early Friday morning in Europe.
In doing so, the black gold braces for the seventh consecutive weekly gain while poking the October 2014 levels, flagging the biggest run-up since October.
Behind the moves is the downbeat performance of the US dollar and fears of supply outage due to the geopolitical tension surrounding Russia and Ukraine. Also favoring the oil bulls are the doubt over the OPEC+ group’s latest verdict to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil output. It’s worth noting that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia is known as OPEC+.
That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drop to the fresh low since January 18 during the six-day downtrend around 95.15. The greenback got widely hit as market players took a major interest in the Euro and the British Pound (GBP) after the recently hawkish monetary policy announcements from the ECB and the BOE.
On the same line was Reuters’ news saying, “Russia's President Vladimir Putin has blamed NATO and the West for increased tensions, even as he has moved thousands of troops near to Ukraine's border.” The news also highlights the OPEC+ group’s struggle to meet existing targets despite pressure from top consumers to raise production more quickly.
It’s worth noting, however, that the market’s pre-NFP mood seems to challenge the oil buyers, as yields and stock futures portray a mixed picture.
Given the downbeat forecasts for the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls, expected 150K versus 199K prior, coupled with the negative surprise from US ADP Employment Change for January, to -301K versus +207K forecast, oil buyers remain hopeful.
Read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Win-win-win for the dollar? Low expectations, weak greenback point higher
Technical analysis
Unless declining back below October 2021 high near $85.00, WTI crude oil prices are likely to rise towards an ascending resistance line from March 2021, around $91.50 at the latest.