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3 May 2013

Commodities Brief: Oil regains most of previous losses, closes day +3.37%

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The choppy trading across commodities continued today, as “risk assets” were back in play after the ECB Monetary Policy meeting earlier in the day. Apparently market participants viewed the ECB rate cut and further dovish rhetoric from the ECB as bullish, which sent both stocks and commodities higher. Oil led the way in commodities, finishing up 3.37% at 94.07. The commodity was able regain of its losses from the previous two days, but still needs to build value and close above 95 to really set the stage for a leg higher. The precious metals markets also managed to join in, with gold finishing up 0.61% at 1466, and silver ending up 0.97% at 23.79.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of crude is extremely range bound with both short term moving averages and rsi (14) both in neutral set up. Initial resistance in oil remains at 94.70-95.00 (supply candles on daily chart), followed by 96.15 (previous support, now resistance on daily chart). Initial support sits at 93.26 (previous day high), followed by 92.12 (the 9dma).

The precious metals daily charts appear to be a bit clearer as far as the short term trend is concerned. Both metals are continuing to form what appear to be “bear flag” continuation patterns. Neither of these patterns have been confirmed yet, but once resolved would have bearish implications going forward. In order to be confirmed, silver would need a daily close below 23.30, and gold below 1439.. Short term moving averages are now bearish silver (price below both the 9 and 20dma), while on gold they remain neutral (price located between the 9 and 20dma).
May 3, 2013

Forex Flash: Three scenarios on the ECB outlook in coming months - RBS

According to RBS economics team, there are three scenarios for the ECB outlook for rates for the next few months: "A balanced cut in rates by September (A); a cut in the main refinancing rate with the deposit rate unchanged and a symmetrical corridor (B); and no change in rates based on an improving outlook (C)" the team notes.
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May 3, 2013

Forex: NZD/USD unchanged at 0.85 ahead of US NFP

NZD/USD is last at 0.8498, almost unchanged for the week so far and from previous Asia-Pacific open yesterday, while China and Japan will be closed today for holiday. The pair recovers from NY session fresh weekly lows at 0.8452, while keeps being capped below the 0.85 handle as NY session highs.
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