WTI: US-China trade optimism, geopolitical tension are in bull’s favor

• WTI awaits the US open to react to the latest price-positive catalysts.
• US President, WH Adviser conveyed trade positive statements, the US-Middle East tussle continues.
• China’s Caixin PMI will become an immediate indicator to watch.

WTI ended 2019 with a negative daily closing of $61.25. However, a lot positive has happened afterward, which in turn signifies a sustained run-up by the oil benchmark as the US markets open for trading on Thursday.

Among them, the US President Donald Trump’s signal for the phase-one deal signing with China and discussion on phase-two, when he will visit Beijing, grabs the headlines. Also, the White House (WH) Adviser Peter Navarro confirmed the trade optimism while saying that the phase one trade deal is “in the bank” and being translated and that more “great deals” are coming this 2020.

Elsewhere, Pentagon’s “defensive strikes” on Iraq and Syria got widespread criticism from the Middle East as well as China. Iran went a step farther while threatening the US and downplaying its counterstatements.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, generally known as OPEC+, are firmly in support of the further production cuts. Additionally, the latest inventory and rig count data concerning the US stated price-positive patterns.

Hence, the black gold can register an uptick at the start of the US market’s trading activity for 2020. It’s worth mentioning that China’s December month Caixin Manufacturing PMI, expected 51.7 versus 51.8 prior, will be watched for immediate moves after the recently positive manufacturing data from Beijing.

Technical Analysis

The September month high near $63.15 acts as the key upside barrier while sellers will wait for the downside break of 21-day SMA level of $59.90 for short-term entry.