UK: Focus on BoE today – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that outside of today's Bank of England decision, we have a couple of other things to keep an eye on with the OBR first publishing restated March forecasts at 9:30am, "incorporating subsequent ONS classification and other statistical changes."

Key Quotes

“Also, Chancellor Sajid Javid is reportedly making a major speech today (time unknown), with speculation that there could be a new set of fiscal rules announced.”

“As for the Bank of England, we expect the long period of increasingly entrenched uncertainty to make its mark on the macro forecasts, with downgrades to growth and inflation. We also look for the BoE to take another dovish step, replacing its hiking bias with more two-way risks. While we look for a 9-0 vote, there is also a substantial risk of dovish dissents with up to 2 votes in favour of rate cuts. We see little risk of an outright hawkish outcome today, with our hawkish risk being one where the BoE makes as little change to the August/September stance as possible, trying to avoid making waves during the general election campaign.”