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9 Oct 2019

EUR/USD bounces up from 200-hour MA ahead of Fed minutes

  • EUR/USD is reporting moderate gains, having defended key MA support. 
  • Fed's Powell said the central bank's balance sheet will expand again. 
  • American Dollar may find bids if the Fed minutes highlight growing split among policymakers.

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0963, representing marginal gains on the day, having found bids below the 200-hour moving average (MA) support during Tuesday's US trading hours. 

The bid tone around the American Dollar weakened, allowing a bounce in EUR/USD from the 200-hour MA support at 1.0947, possibly due to comments by Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell that central bank’s balance sheet, which it had been shrinking until August, will soon expand again.

Powell also left the doors open for another interest rate cut this month. 

Focus on the Fed minutes

The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its mid-September meeting are scheduled for release at 18:00 GMT. 

The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September. The markets, however, took it as a hawkish cut, as policymakers were divided on the need for further easing in the near term. 

The US Dollar will likely pick up a strong bid, sending EUR/USD back toward recent lows near 1.0879 if the Fed minutes underline the split within the ranks of the central bank, forcing markets to scale back expectations of an October rate cut. 

As of writing, the probability of a 25 bps cut on Oct. 30 stands above 80%. Further, nearly 87 bps of cuts are expected by January 2021, according to Reuters. 

EUR/USD will likely find acceptance above the stiff resistance of the 21-day moving average at 1.0988 if the Fed minutes show growing consensus among policymakers on the need for further easing. 

  • FOMC Minutes September 17-18 Meeting Preview: Balancing the odds

Technical levels

 

Oct 9, 2019

USD/JPY turns higher for the day, comfortable above 107.00 handle

The USD/JPY pair reversed an early Asian session dip to sub-107.00 levels and has now turned higher for the day, recovering a part of the overnight mo
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Oct 9, 2019

GBP/USD consolidates recent losses to 1-month low, just above 1.2200 handle

The GBP/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow band just above one-month lows set in th
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