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30 Apr 2019

When is the monthly Canadian GDP report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian Monthly GDP Overview

Tuesday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for the month of February and is scheduled to be published at 12:30 GMT by Statistics Canada, with consensus estimates pointing to a flat reading on a monthly basis, down from the robust 0.3% print recorded last month.

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for a flat print on Canada’s February GDP owing to weakness in the goods-producing sector, which was foreshadowed by a sharp pullback in real exports and while energy production caps were raised by 75k in February, preliminary crude output was still lower on the month.

Deviation impact on USD/CAD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction on the pair, in case of a deviation between +0.82 to -0.82, is likely to be around 40-pips during the first 15-minutes and could get extended to 84-86 pips in the following 4-hours. 

How could it affect USD/CAD?

Ahead of the key release, the pair was seen flirting with multi-day lows, below mid-1.3400s. Against the backdrop of the prevalent US Dollar selling bias, even a slightly positive reading might be enough to prompt some aggressive selling and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards challenging the 1.3400 round figure mark before eventually dropping to 1.3380 horizontal support.

Alternatively, a weaker than expected reading might assist the pair to aim back towards reclaiming the key 1.3500 psychological mark. A follow-through buying has the potential to continue lifting the pair further towards 1.3560-65 intermediate resistance en-route the 1.3600 round figure mark.

Key Notes

   •  Canada GDP preview: Activity data for February was mixed on balance - TDS

   •  USD/CAD Forecast: Symmetrical Triangle bullish breakout opens risk to 1.3630s, fundamentals apply (but so far marry-up)

   •  USD/CAD: Falling wedge at the top highlights 1.3470 ahead of Canada GDP

About monthly Canadian GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.
 

Apr 30, 2019

UK PM May's Spokesman: Talks with Labour party have been serious and constructive

The UK PM Theresa May's spokesman was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that talks with Labour party have been serious and constr
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Apr 30, 2019

India Infrastructure Output (YoY) up to 4.7% in March from previous 2.1%

India Infrastructure Output (YoY) up to 4.7% in March from previous 2.1%
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