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28 Nov 2018

AUD/USD: Bulls take over and vault 0.73 the figure on Powell's dovishness, DXY down 60 pips

  • AUD/USD bulls have taken back control following a dovish outcome from Powell's speech to the Economic Club of New York where he has emphasised that rates are just below the neutral range and that there is no clear rate path.
  • AUD/USD bulls now look for the all-clear following a positive outcome of the Xi/Trump summit this weekend. However, bulls may be left found wanting.
  • AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7295 having made a high of 0.7321 from a low of 0.7221. 

AUD/USD rallied hard following a dovish rhetoric in Powell's speech to the Economic Club of New York where he has not only emphasised that rates are just below the neutral range and that there is no clear rate path. He also has shown signs that the Fed is concerned over leverage borrowing in the US economy.

If rates are not a preset path and dependent on economic data, and without mentioning that rates will be gradually raised in 2019, then perhaps the Fed is done already; The stock markets certainly think so, and US yields have dropped. The 10-year yield plummeted to 3.044% from a high of 3.071%. The more sensitive 2-year yields fell from 2.847% to a low of 2.801%. The S&P 500 is now up 1.49%, the Nasdaq +1.88% and the DJIA + 1.80% - That's all great for risk assets and high beta-FX such as the Aussie. 

Weekend meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump as next major risk

AUD/USD bulls will now hope for a solution to the Sino/US discord from this weekend's meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump where they are expected to discuss trade. According to White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, Trump and Xi Jinping would in-fact, have constructive discussions and reach an agreement when they meet this Saturday over a dinner meeting. However, market sentiment remains extremely sensitive after the US administration recently signalled its frustration with the Chinese proposals. On the most optimistic viewpoint, what we might see is an immediate postponement of 25% tariffs on USD 200 billion of Chinese imports, which could be just enough to spur on a relief rally in AUD/USD. Anything less than that, a long drawn out series of negotiations will likely follow and leave the dispute up in the air and weighing on AUD/USD for the foreseeable future. 

AUD/USD levels

  • Pivot point support levels: 0.7200, 0.7162 and 0.7125.
  • Pivot point resistance levels: 0.7335.

AUD/USD has vaulted 0.73 the figure with ease over the dovishness in Powell's speech. The next barrier is 0.7338 as being the 11-week high that guards a run towards the 200-D SMA at 0.7425 and confluence of the 38.2% Fibo of the 2018 highs to recent lows at 0.7443. On the flipside, the cluster of hourly SMAs around the session lows at 0.7220/30, with the confluence of the 21-D SMA at 0.7232 guards a break to the 50-D SMA at 0.7180  ahead of the 0.7164 recent lows that guard 0.7085 as the 10th Sep lows. 0.7020 are the 2018 lows. 

Nov 28, 2018

Fed's Powell: Estimates of neutral policy rate, maximum employment highly uncertain

Following his introductory speech, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell is now responding to questions at the Economic Club of New York luncheon. Key quotes (
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Nov 28, 2018

BoE's Carney: Cutting interest rates after a disorderly Brexit would not allow a UK bank to operate in EU

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney continue to cross the wires as he responds to questions on the Financial Stability Repor
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