Here are the key dates to hedge sterling in respect to Brexit - Nomura
Analysts at Nomura explained the key dates that traders need to look out for when it comes to Brexit noise and sterling.
Key Quotes:
"Once we get past this week’s UK GDP data release, next week’s Labour/CPI/retail sales data and the 3-5 September PMIs, our focus will return to Brexit proceedings."
"Parliament returns on 4 September, when the Taxation (Cross-border trade) Bill (also known as the customs bill and sets out new arrangements) has its second reading in the House of Lords. The Trade bill (which allows the UK to strike free trade deals) returns to the House of Lords on 11 September for its second reading. But as parliament can throw a spanner into the works at any moment, rather than focusing on those dates we’d prefer to concentrate more on the following:
- 20 September informal EU leaders’ summit (widely reported to be set up to discuss Brexit).
- 30 Sep to 3 October Conservatives party conference (Theresa May opened and closed the last two years with separate but similar speeches) and
- 18 October EU summit (when an EU deal is supposed to be struck). Of course there is room for this timetable to slip with reports suggesting the UK government expects the EU to look to secure a deal before the G20 leaders’ summit on 30 November to 1 December. To do so it would need to pencil in a not-yet organised summit for the purpose of signing off on the Brexit deal. Failing that, then there is the more expensive hedging date of 29 March 2019, Brexit day itself."
"In the infographic above we include the full list of what we are watching, the 23-26 September Labour conference could be equally just as interesting if it leads to any change of position from the leadership in regards to a second referendum."
Further reading and related articles:
-
GBP/USD: bears looking for a break below the key 1.28 handle
-
Brexit trade: GBP/USD the better Brexit hedge over EUR/GBP - Nomura
- GBP strategy from now until 20 September EU leaders summit - Nomura