GBP/USD: better fade gains below 1.3920/50?

• GBP/USD: bulls unable to crack topside resistance on repeated failures.
• GBP/USD: technically leaning bearish.

GBP/USD bears have smacked the bulls back into their place n yet another failure of the upside where the 1.39 handle remains a tall order within the March rally from 1.3711. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3874, down -0.10% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3914 and low at 1.3846.

Brexit has been back in the limelight where the EU has offered Britain modest free trade deal, limited financial services access while UK's Hammond said that sceptics are wrong to say banks can't be in Brexit deal. 

Brexit key issues

The key issue with all of this is the time to resolve many of these details of the whole Brexit negotiation saga is not on the UK's sid and that is weighing on the pound. Just yesterday comments from DUP leader Arlene Foster following a meeting with the EU’s Michal Barnier where it was suggested that the current draft “has omissions and overreaches” and that therefore, there will “be a need to negotiate”. 

Elsewhere, UK house price appreciation slowed to a 4-year low in Feb, according to data from The Halifax (+1.8% Y/Y). "The slowdown reflects depleted demand (especially in London) amid Brexit concerns as well as a broader retrenchment in UK consumer spending amid a squeeze on real incomes," argued analysts at Scotiabank.

GBP/USD levels

Failures below the  21-D SMA at 1.3913 and with the 50-D SMA at 1.3859 now pierced, the technical lean bearish on the daily sticks while the hourly picture is more neutral, with the price supported by the 50-hr SMA. However, the defending 200-hr SMA is painting a potential bearish outlook. 

A break below this cluster of supporting factors will open up space below the 1.3800 psychological level towards the recent lows of 1.3766. Below there, the  1.3658 September peak and the 1.3479 2016-2018 uptrends are critical.  

To the upside, a move through 1.4000 would be breaking the descending resistance before the next resistance line at 1.4044.The 200-week moving average is located at 1.4332 and remains a key target through 1.4148.