World trade resumes its recovery - ING

"As the global economy gains pace, world trade continues its growth path," notes Timme Spakman, Economist & International Trade Analysis at ING.

Key quotes:

"World trade as measured by the CPB was up 2% MoM in May from a dip of -2.2% (initial estimate -2.1%) in April. As we expected, the April dip was a short break in the global upturn. The main growth driver for trade is the world’s economic cycle, which is gaining pace again."

"During the first quarter of this year, investment was up in most parts of the world, including the United States, Euro area, and Japan. This resulted in growing demand from the advanced economies."

"One of the beneficiaries of the increased demand from advanced economies is Latin America. Increased demand from advanced economies boosted exports. In addition, this stronger foreign demand accompanied by a modest recovery in commodity prices supported economic activity and resulted in more demand for imports in Latin America."

"The momentum in the world economy is also boosting trade in emerging Asia. Because the Chinese export industry is very import intensive, strengthening demand from advanced economies leads to more imports by China."

"We expect a return to growth this year, after low growth during most of 2016. However, due to various underlying fundamentals, this growth is not expected to exceed world GDP growth."