US: Jobs probably won’t matter for the Fed – Scotiabank

According to the analysts at Scotiabank, it’s unlikely that the only thing of note on the US jobs data will actually matter much to the Fed as it would take a really big downside to nonfarm payrolls and/or wage growth on Friday to impact the debate on whether to hike on March 15th or opt to buy more time.

Key Quotes

“Strong numbers might solidify a March hike, while even just 100-150k new jobs and north of 2% wage growth would likely keep a hike in March on track all else equal by way of Fed thinking. Markets are largely priced for a hike this month and very suddenly at that, but are doing so by leaving the full year’s expected number of hikes largely unchanged at a little more than two being fully priced in for the year. Our forecast remains three hikes for the year as a whole and therefore remains a little richer than market pricing.”