US: Durable goods, consumer sentiment and Q4 GDP data in focus - TDS

Analysts at TDS expect US Q4 GDP to advance by 2.2% q/q (saar), in line with market estimates but sees a small upside risk following advance inventory and trade data.

Key Quotes

“Once again, growth is expected to be driven by strong consumer spending, with markets forecasting an annualized increase of 2.5% q/q, though we also see signs of a further recovery in non-residential investment.”

“December durable goods orders should show further evidence of a recovery in business investment with TD forecasting a 2.6% m/m advance in total orders while the less volatile ex-transportation series should post a 0.5% gain, both in line with market estimates.”

“University of Michigan Sentiment is the last release on the calendar and we look for a minor increase to 98.2. Most surveys of consumer sentiment have stabilized since the initial “Trump bump” and we see limited scope for further upside from political developments absent detailed policy proposals.”