USD/TRY looks to test 3.15 in 12-month – Danske Bank

Senior Strategist at Danske Bank Vladimir Miklashevsky expects the Turkish Lira to depreciate towards the 3.15 area within a year’s time.

Key Quotes

“We expect the central bank to keep its key rate unchanged in the near future to stabilise the TRY and push consumer prices down to pre-coup attempt levels under 7% y/y. Yet, the pressure on the central bank to cut the key rate could increase as Turkish prosecutors see Gulenist-groups in the bank”.

“Given the prevailing political uncertainty and economic slowdown while geopolitical tension has eased and economic ties with Russia are being restored, we keep our USD/TRY short- and medium-term post-coup attempt forecasts from July to 2.98 in 1M (previously 3.12), 3.05 in 3M (previously 3.20), 3.07 in 6M (previously 3.25) and 3.15 in 12M (previously 3.35)”.