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5 Aug 2016

GBP/USD was the show of the week on BoE surprises

 

GBP/USD was the main show overnight with the BoE surprising markets by doing more than expected in an attempt to be pro-active given their downgrades in assessments of the UK economy going forward. 

“As expected the Bank of England (BoE) delivered a substantial easing package today, including a 25bp Bank Rate cut to 0.25%, GBP70bn QE (GBP60bn government bond and GBP10bn corporate bond purchases) and a new Term Funding Scheme (TFS),” explained analysts at Danske Bank.

What effect has the BoE had on UK markets?

The pound dumped from 1.3330 to 1.3110 and had drifted lower to 1.3101 lows and 2yr swap rates fell 8bp and 10 year gilt yields fell 16bp to a new low.

"The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize the UK economy. UK equities have risen 1.6% in response to the policy easing, leading gains in other markets. The FTSE index is approaching new highs for the year, well above the rout that followed the Brexit vote...The weak currency, one of the few to be weaker than the USD this year, is further enhancing the effectiveness of the BoE monetary policy easing," explained Greg Gibbs, Director, Amplifying Global FX Capital 

We now await the nonfarm payrolls as the next major event for GBP/USD

How volatile has GBP/USD been?

Hourly 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is currently 351 pips, and has been shrinking, while the ATR (14) is currently 30 pips. Daily 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 464 pips and shrinking. The average movement for the current hour has been for 30 pips per hour, over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, 11:00-12:00 GMT represented peak for volatility, with an average movement of 86 pips over the same period.
 

What price levels and patterns have to be considered?

Spot is presently trading at 1.3117, and next resistance can be seen at 1.3125 (Daily High), 1.3178 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.3186 (Daily Classic S3), 1.3198 (Weekly Classic PP) and 1.3202 (Hourly 200 SMA). Support below can be found at 1.3107 (Weekly Low), 1.3106 (Daily Open), 1.3102 (Yesterday's Low), 1.3101 (Daily Low) and 1.3093 (Weekly Classic S1). Regarding candlestick formations, we can see Hammer formation on the 1-hour and a Hammer formation on the 4-hour chart.

Aug 5, 2016

Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index down to 51.6 in July from previous 53.2

Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index down to 51.6 in July from previous 53.2
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Aug 5, 2016

Japan JP Foreign Reserves fell from previous $1265.4B to $1264.8B in July

Japan JP Foreign Reserves fell from previous $1265.4B to $1264.8B in July
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