Gold inter-market: In a wait-and-see mode ahead of EU referendum

Gold prices failed to sustain above $ 1300 mark yet again a day before and fell sharply from two-year highs this Friday, having reversed almost $ 40 intraday.

The bullion retreated sharply mainly on back of easing Brexit fears after the UK PM Cameron announced suspension of Britain’s campaign for the EU referendum in wake of the tragic death of a Member of Parliament Jo Cox on Thursday. Markets believe that her death may sway public opinion towards the "Remain" campaign and therefore, a renewed risk-on wave got triggered, which weighed heavily on the safe-haven gold.

However, during the European trading, the yellow metal found some support near $ 1280 region, and now consolidates the downside below hourly 100-SMA placed at $ 1287. The latest reversal in the gold prices from multi-month highs can be justified by a solid rebound in the USD/JPY pair from fresh 22-month lows, while a rally in the US 10-year treasury yields and US equities also suggested a turnaround in the risk conditions.

Meanwhile, as in past, the VIX (a measure of volatility in the US stock market) continues to move in separate ways with the gold prices and therefore, does not justify the recent downslide.

Going forward, next week is likely to be decisive for gold as we head towards Thursday EU referendum. In case, we have a British exit (Brexit) from EU’s membership, the bullion could jump to test $ 1400 barrier. On the contrary, a sharp decline to 200-DMA at 1172.40 looks likely if Britain avoids a Brexit.