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22 Feb 2016
Forget about markets calming in murky politics - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that it does feel like the global political situation is rather clouded at present and that this murkiness is never a great thing for those hoping for market calm.
Key Quotes:
"Negotiations on the conditions for the UK to remain in the European Union were a hot topic. A deal was eventually reached, although not before weighing on market sentiment as the process took far longer than expected. UK Prime Minister David Cameron has subsequently called a referendum for 23 June, setting up what is likely to be an intense few months of campaigning by both camps. Recent polls show the public split at roughly 50:50, with the outcome likely to have considerable implications for the UK economy (and the euro area).
But beyond the UK, there is of course the ongoing politics of the oil market as oil producers respond to the current supply glut, illustrating the ultimate tension between group and self-interest. In the US, the presidential campaign has obviously seen a shift in populism of more ‘extreme’ candidates (although to be fair that also appears to be a theme the world over too).
Why does all this matter? Well to us, the missing ingredient for many countries post crisis to achieving more sustainable growth outcomes has been structural and microeconomic reform. And with growth still lacklustre for some, and the effectiveness of monetary policy arguably close to exhausted, this lack of reform may come home to roost."
Key Quotes:
"Negotiations on the conditions for the UK to remain in the European Union were a hot topic. A deal was eventually reached, although not before weighing on market sentiment as the process took far longer than expected. UK Prime Minister David Cameron has subsequently called a referendum for 23 June, setting up what is likely to be an intense few months of campaigning by both camps. Recent polls show the public split at roughly 50:50, with the outcome likely to have considerable implications for the UK economy (and the euro area).
But beyond the UK, there is of course the ongoing politics of the oil market as oil producers respond to the current supply glut, illustrating the ultimate tension between group and self-interest. In the US, the presidential campaign has obviously seen a shift in populism of more ‘extreme’ candidates (although to be fair that also appears to be a theme the world over too).
Why does all this matter? Well to us, the missing ingredient for many countries post crisis to achieving more sustainable growth outcomes has been structural and microeconomic reform. And with growth still lacklustre for some, and the effectiveness of monetary policy arguably close to exhausted, this lack of reform may come home to roost."