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10 Feb 2016
Norway: We expect a rate cut - Danske
Analysts from Danske Bank expect a rate cut from the central bank of Norway (Norges Bank) on March 17.
Key Quotes:
“Since the December meeting, most of the factors affecting the rate decision and the rate path have surprised to the downside.”
“The oil price has dropped further, and is currently USD6-7/bl lower than expected in MPR 4/15. Global rates have dropped, and are currently roughly 15-20bp lower at end-2016 than previously assumed.”
“Global risk appetite has plummeted, increasing downside risks to global growth and risk premiums.”
“Domestic key figures, including the CPI, have admittedly been more mixed than we had expected, even though full visibility is still required for the GDP figures, oil investments and the regional survey – all due later this month or in early March.”
"As a result, we expect Norges Bank to cut rates by 25bp at the meeting on 17 March. As our view on the domestic economy remains unchanged, we expect that to be the last cut in this cycle.”
Key Quotes:
“Since the December meeting, most of the factors affecting the rate decision and the rate path have surprised to the downside.”
“The oil price has dropped further, and is currently USD6-7/bl lower than expected in MPR 4/15. Global rates have dropped, and are currently roughly 15-20bp lower at end-2016 than previously assumed.”
“Global risk appetite has plummeted, increasing downside risks to global growth and risk premiums.”
“Domestic key figures, including the CPI, have admittedly been more mixed than we had expected, even though full visibility is still required for the GDP figures, oil investments and the regional survey – all due later this month or in early March.”
"As a result, we expect Norges Bank to cut rates by 25bp at the meeting on 17 March. As our view on the domestic economy remains unchanged, we expect that to be the last cut in this cycle.”