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1 Feb 2016
NZD/USD: Target a bounce towards 0.6600 - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist at Westpac, suggests that the BoJ has helped boost global risk sentiment which should rub off on the NZD and they target a bounce to 0.6600.
Key Quotes
“However, an actionpacked NZ calendar, plus US payrolls (Fri) have the potential to surprise NZD/USD in both directions. First, on Tue night, we have the GDT dairy auction which futures say will show a small fall in WMP prices. Then on Wed we get the Q4 labour market data, with the unemployment rate the key piece of news. That afternoon we’ll hear the annual speech by Governor Wheeler which should be an elaboration of last week’s dovish OCR Review and may shed further light on the timing of any easing. Then on Thu, Assistant Governor McDermott talks about monetary policy guidance.
3 months:
We expect NZD/USD to remain under downward pressure during the next few months, targeting 0.62. Our main argument is that the Fed should raise US interest rates further this year but markets have priced little in. We expect US data is to start surprising positively during the next few months, pushing US interest rates higher. In contrast, the RBNZ should ease twice this year, but markets have priced in only once.
1 year:
Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut by another 50bp to 2.0%, but the Fed rate to rise by 100bp to 1.375%.”
Key Quotes
“However, an actionpacked NZ calendar, plus US payrolls (Fri) have the potential to surprise NZD/USD in both directions. First, on Tue night, we have the GDT dairy auction which futures say will show a small fall in WMP prices. Then on Wed we get the Q4 labour market data, with the unemployment rate the key piece of news. That afternoon we’ll hear the annual speech by Governor Wheeler which should be an elaboration of last week’s dovish OCR Review and may shed further light on the timing of any easing. Then on Thu, Assistant Governor McDermott talks about monetary policy guidance.
3 months:
We expect NZD/USD to remain under downward pressure during the next few months, targeting 0.62. Our main argument is that the Fed should raise US interest rates further this year but markets have priced little in. We expect US data is to start surprising positively during the next few months, pushing US interest rates higher. In contrast, the RBNZ should ease twice this year, but markets have priced in only once.
1 year:
Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut by another 50bp to 2.0%, but the Fed rate to rise by 100bp to 1.375%.”