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27 Jan 2016
Key events in RBNZ and FOMC ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Westpac noted the key events ahead.
Key Quotes:
"The FOMC statement is due 2pm NY. The Fed's assessment of international developments and the implications for the US economy and financial markets should be focus for discussion. With only a short statement, we expect the Fed to repeat that normalization will proceed as data allows in 2016, though markets will be watching for any shift to a more dovish stance.
Given the low Fed hike odds priced in (25%) by March, retention of much of the language of the Dec statement could be enough to support USD. There should be no dissenters despite the new voting rotation which is on the face of it more hawkish: George, Mester, Bullard and Rosengren replacing Evans, Lockhart, Williams and Lacker.
The RBNZ policy decision will be announced at 7am Syd/9am local Thu/3pm Wed NY. We expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold at 2.50%, but to shift from a conditional easing bias (“the Bank will reduce rates if circumstances warrant”) to an unconditional one. NZ swap rates and the NZD should fall slightly in response.
While growth remains solid, since the Dec meeting, CPI undershot the RBNZ’s forecast even excluding petrol. Despite market turmoil, the trade-weighted exchange rate has held at a higher level than the RBNZ forecast and the housing market has also turned out significantly weaker than expected. Westpac’s forecast is still for two cuts, most likely in Jun and Aug, though risks are that we could see the RBNZ move earlier in Mar."
Key Quotes:
"The FOMC statement is due 2pm NY. The Fed's assessment of international developments and the implications for the US economy and financial markets should be focus for discussion. With only a short statement, we expect the Fed to repeat that normalization will proceed as data allows in 2016, though markets will be watching for any shift to a more dovish stance.
Given the low Fed hike odds priced in (25%) by March, retention of much of the language of the Dec statement could be enough to support USD. There should be no dissenters despite the new voting rotation which is on the face of it more hawkish: George, Mester, Bullard and Rosengren replacing Evans, Lockhart, Williams and Lacker.
The RBNZ policy decision will be announced at 7am Syd/9am local Thu/3pm Wed NY. We expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold at 2.50%, but to shift from a conditional easing bias (“the Bank will reduce rates if circumstances warrant”) to an unconditional one. NZ swap rates and the NZD should fall slightly in response.
While growth remains solid, since the Dec meeting, CPI undershot the RBNZ’s forecast even excluding petrol. Despite market turmoil, the trade-weighted exchange rate has held at a higher level than the RBNZ forecast and the housing market has also turned out significantly weaker than expected. Westpac’s forecast is still for two cuts, most likely in Jun and Aug, though risks are that we could see the RBNZ move earlier in Mar."