Back
21 Dec 2015
Emerging markets 2016: Highly selective - Danske
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Danske Bank, the best recommendation for 2016 regarding emerging markets is to treat them highly selective.
Key Quotes:
“We cannot exclude Fed anxiety coming back to haunt emerging markets. In our view, the market is interpreting the Fed too softly. If the Fed moves more aggressively than expected by the market, we might well see further emerging market currency pressures.”
“However, for many emerging markets a backlash of weaker currencies would be higher debt service costs, which would hurt. Hence, our best recommendation for 2016 at this stage is to treat emerging markets highly selectively.”
“We recommend looking for energy-importing emerging markets with large export shares to the US and which have seen a large FX adjustment, such as Asian, some Latin American and Eastern European countries. India is certainly a country that meets the criteria but Mexico and Turkey also look promising.”
“Although we believe commodity producing countries will be under a lot of pressure, we may see a turning point in some of the countries that have allowed large upfront exchange rate adjustments, such as Russia.”
Key Quotes:
“We cannot exclude Fed anxiety coming back to haunt emerging markets. In our view, the market is interpreting the Fed too softly. If the Fed moves more aggressively than expected by the market, we might well see further emerging market currency pressures.”
“However, for many emerging markets a backlash of weaker currencies would be higher debt service costs, which would hurt. Hence, our best recommendation for 2016 at this stage is to treat emerging markets highly selectively.”
“We recommend looking for energy-importing emerging markets with large export shares to the US and which have seen a large FX adjustment, such as Asian, some Latin American and Eastern European countries. India is certainly a country that meets the criteria but Mexico and Turkey also look promising.”
“Although we believe commodity producing countries will be under a lot of pressure, we may see a turning point in some of the countries that have allowed large upfront exchange rate adjustments, such as Russia.”