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3 Nov 2015
EUR/USD looking bearish then bullish to 1.2000 - Danske
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Danske Bank explained that the IMM positioning data show how speculators considerably added to their bearish EUR bets post the October ECB meeting where Draghi surprised markets with very dovish rhetoric.
Key Quotes:
"Add to this the significant bearish JPY builds last week which contributed to returning aggregate bullish USD bets to historically stretched long territory."
"Notably, we expect the level to have become even more stretched as the FOMC’s hawkish tone is likely to have attracted even more USD bulls post the report’s coverage period."
"Fundamentally, however, we still regard EUR/USD downside potential to be limited from here, as stretched speculative positioning, in our view, has been a contributing factor in diminishing the EUR/USD sensitivity to relative rates."
"Over the coming months we see some further downside to the EUR/USD from relative rates as the first Fed hike edges closer but, in the medium term, we stick to our call that strong euro area fundamentals will take over from relative rates and push EUR/USD higher."
"We target the cross at 1.08 in 3M, 1.12 in 6M and 1.20 in 12M."
Key Quotes:
"Add to this the significant bearish JPY builds last week which contributed to returning aggregate bullish USD bets to historically stretched long territory."
"Notably, we expect the level to have become even more stretched as the FOMC’s hawkish tone is likely to have attracted even more USD bulls post the report’s coverage period."
"Fundamentally, however, we still regard EUR/USD downside potential to be limited from here, as stretched speculative positioning, in our view, has been a contributing factor in diminishing the EUR/USD sensitivity to relative rates."
"Over the coming months we see some further downside to the EUR/USD from relative rates as the first Fed hike edges closer but, in the medium term, we stick to our call that strong euro area fundamentals will take over from relative rates and push EUR/USD higher."
"We target the cross at 1.08 in 3M, 1.12 in 6M and 1.20 in 12M."