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13 Mar 2015
Key events ahead in UK: Employment data, Budget and BoE Minutes – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities previews the big three events in the UK in the coming week.
Key Quotes
“Employment Data (Wed 18 March): We look for the unemployment rate to slip at least 0.1ppts lower to 5.6% in Jan (with the risk of 5.5%) as survey data and the claimant count all point to a continuing improvement in the labour market.”
“On the wage side we look for wage growth to come in at 2.2% Y/Y, just a touch higher than we saw last month.”
“Budget (Wed 18 March): The final pre-election budget will be released around 12:30pm. New measures are likely to balance out most of the improvement in the fiscal numbers since the Autumn Statement, but these are more likely to be eye-catching from a political standpoint rather than changing the fiscal picture substantially.”
“BoE Minutes (Wed 18 March): Markets will be looking for another unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, especially after the BoE (accidentally, we think) published a press release after the 5 March rate decision saying that “The Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 4 and 5 March reveal a unanimous vote on Bank Rate and Asset Purchases”.”
“Recent comments from Weale and McCafferty also didn’t suggest that either one of them has changed their votes back to hiking quite yet.”
Key Quotes
“Employment Data (Wed 18 March): We look for the unemployment rate to slip at least 0.1ppts lower to 5.6% in Jan (with the risk of 5.5%) as survey data and the claimant count all point to a continuing improvement in the labour market.”
“On the wage side we look for wage growth to come in at 2.2% Y/Y, just a touch higher than we saw last month.”
“Budget (Wed 18 March): The final pre-election budget will be released around 12:30pm. New measures are likely to balance out most of the improvement in the fiscal numbers since the Autumn Statement, but these are more likely to be eye-catching from a political standpoint rather than changing the fiscal picture substantially.”
“BoE Minutes (Wed 18 March): Markets will be looking for another unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, especially after the BoE (accidentally, we think) published a press release after the 5 March rate decision saying that “The Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 4 and 5 March reveal a unanimous vote on Bank Rate and Asset Purchases”.”
“Recent comments from Weale and McCafferty also didn’t suggest that either one of them has changed their votes back to hiking quite yet.”