BRL: Breaking free – ING

USD/BRL is trading comfortably above 6.00 as President Lula seems to be happy to prioritize politics over financial markets, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner note.

USD/BRL can trade at 6.50 in 12 months

“Here his government has watered down planned fiscal consolidation with some tax breaks for lower-income households. The independent central bank seems happy to let the Brazilian real take the strain as a means to coerce a political U-turn on the fiscal side. Here, the central bank has a large pool of FX reserves and is currently tightening interest rate policy – but so far has avoided FX intervention or threatening more aggressive rate hikes.”

“With a difficult external environment and no sign yet of a fiscal U-turn, it is hard to see $/BRL turning lower. We have a 6.25 12-month forecast for USD/BRL. If things go very wrong for Brazil and the real effective Brazilian currency falls back to the lows in 2020, then USD/BRL could be a 6.50 story.”