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4 Mar 2024

USD/JPY rises toward 151.00 as BoJ pushes back hopes of policy normalization

  • USD/JPY advances toward 151.00 as BoJ might postpone policy-normalization plans.
  • BoJ Ueda wants to see more wage data before announcing victory over deflation.
  • The US Dollar will be guided by Fed Powell’s testimony and employment data.

The USD/JPY pair marches toward a three-month high of 150.80 in the early New York session. The asset strengthens as the Japanese Yen comes under pressure after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda cited concerns over exiting the dovish monetary policy stance.

BoJ Ueda stressed the need to scrutinize more wage growth data to confirm that it could keep inflation above the 2% target. Contrary to BoJ Ueda, BOJ board member Hajime Takata said last week that the central bank must consider overhauling its ultra-loose monetary policy, including an exit from negative interest rates and bond yield control, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains on the backfoot as expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in June remains firm. The US Dollar witnesses higher liquidity outflows when hopes for interest-rate normalization by the Fed deepen.

This week, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, which is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Market participants hope that Fed Powell will reiterate the need to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% until it gains confidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target.

In addition to Fed Powell’s testimony, the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data for February will influence market expectations for the interest rate outlook. The consensus shows that US private employers hired 150K job seekers against 107K in January.

 

Mar 4, 2024

USD will struggle to improve significantly from current levels – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) closed lower over the week through Friday, its second, consecutive net weekly drop, and is starting the new week on the defensive again.
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Mar 4, 2024

USD/JPY: Scope for only a moderate move lower in the coming months – Rabobank

Is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ready to act? Economists at Rabobank analyze Yen’s outlook ahead of the BoJ’s March meeting.
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