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1 Jun 2023

EUR/GBP moves further away from YTD low after Lagarde’s remarks, lacks follow-through

  • EUR/GBP gains positive traction on Thursday and snaps a four-day losing streak to the YTD low.
  • Bets for more rate hikes by the ECB underpin the shared currency and lend support to the cross.
  • The intraday uptick seems rather unaffected by softer-than-expected Eurozone consumer inflation.

The EUR/GBP cross attracts some buyers near the 0.8585-0.8580 region on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to a fresh YTD low touched the previous day. Spot prices add to the modest intraday gains and climb back above the 0.8600 mark during the first half of the European session, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive.

The shared currency draws some support from the recent hawkish comments by several European Central Bank (ECB) officials, backing the case for additional rate hikes in the coming months, and assists the EUR/GBP cross to gain some positive traction. The bets were reaffirmed by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Thursday, saying that we need to continue our hiking cycle until we are sufficiently confident that inflation is on track to return to our target in a timely manner.

This, to a larger extent, overshadows softer-than-expected Eurozone consumer inflation figures. In fact, the latest data published by Eurostat showed that the annual Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated from the 7.0% YoY rate to 6.1% in May, missing consensus estimates for a reading of 6.3%. Furthermore, the Core HICP inflation dropped to 5.3% YoY in May as against market expectations for a modest downtick to 5.5% from the 5.6% in the previous month.

The upside potential for the EUR/GBP cross, meanwhile, seems limited amid expectations for further policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE), which might continue to underpin the British Pound. In fact, the markets now predict the interest rate in the UK to reach 5.5% by the autumn and the bets were lifted by stronger UK consumer inflation figures released last week. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move for the cross.

Technical levels to watch

 

Jun 1, 2023

ECB’s Knot: 2024 rate-cut bets may have to be adjusted

During a speech in Brussels on Thursday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it’s not unlikely that 2024 interest rate-cut
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Jun 1, 2023

USD/CNH: FX “smoothening” to continue near key levels of 7.15, 7.20, and 7.25 – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse revise their USD/CNH forecast range to 6.90-7.30 and expect FX “smoothening” to continue near key levels of 7.15, 7.20, an
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